Bonus Value Calculator
A casino bonus looks generous on paper, but the wagering requirement eats into its value every time you spin or play a hand. Work out the expected value (EV) before you deposit – and see exactly which RTP makes the bonus break even.
Fill in the bonus amount, wagering requirement and RTP to see the expected value.
This calculation is a mathematical simplification based on the game's RTP and assumes the entire wagering requirement is played through at its theoretical house-edge cost. Real outcomes vary round to round because of variance – EV describes the expected average over a very large number of rounds, not the result of a single session. Always read the operator's full bonus terms before depositing.
A casino bonus is rarely free money outright – almost every bonus comes with a wagering requirement that forces you to play through a certain amount before you can withdraw winnings. This calculator works out the expected value (EV) of a bonus after the wagering requirement, based on the game's RTP (return to player), so you can see whether the bonus is actually worth taking.
How the calculation works
A wagering requirement of, say, 20× means you must stake 20 times a certain amount before the bonus (and any winnings from it) becomes withdrawable. That amount can be the bonus alone, or the deposit plus the bonus combined – terms differ between operators, so always check what applies to your bonus.
EV = Bonus − (Total wagering × (1 − RTP)), where Total wagering = Wagering requirement × Base (bonus, or deposit + bonus)
Every unit you stake loses, on average, (1 − RTP) to the house edge. Multiply that by the entire wagering amount and you get the expected cost of playing through the requirement. Subtract that cost from the bonus and you have the EV – the expected value after wagering. The break-even RTP is the RTP level where EV is exactly zero: play a game with a higher RTP than that and the bonus becomes statistically profitable.
Worked example
Say you get a 1000 bonus with a 20× wagering requirement on the bonus alone. That gives a total wagering amount of 20 × 1000 = 20,000. Play a slot with 96% RTP and it costs, on average, 20,000 × (1 − 0.96) = 800 to wager through the whole requirement. EV then comes to 1000 − 800 = +200 – a positive expected value.
Raise the wagering requirement to 35× instead, and the total wagering amount becomes 35,000. At the same 96% RTP, it now costs, on average, 1400 to play through the requirement – more than the bonus itself. EV comes to 1000 − 1400 = −400. The bonus therefore has a negative expected value at that wagering requirement, even though it can still feel like "free money" when you deposit.
Frequently asked questions
Does a negative EV mean I'll always lose money on the bonus?
No. EV is a statistical average over a very large number of rounds, not a guarantee for a single session. Because of variance, you can easily come out ahead even with a negative EV – or behind with a positive one. What EV shows is what you'd expect in the long run if you repeated the calculation over and over.
Why does it matter whether the wagering requirement applies to the bonus or to deposit + bonus?
The wagering requirement is multiplied by the base amount – if the base is deposit + bonus instead of the bonus alone, the total wagering becomes much larger for the same multiplier, which raises the expected cost and pulls EV down. Always check which base applies in the bonus terms before comparing offers.
Why do different games give such different results in the calculator?
RTP varies a lot between game categories – a typical slot sits around 94-97%, while blackjack with correct basic strategy can exceed 99%. Since the expected cost is wagering × (1 − RTP), even a small RTP difference makes a big difference to EV once the wagering amount is large. Many operators' bonus terms also restrict which games count toward the wagering requirement, or weight table games down – always read the fine print.
